Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan (K&B) have applied an innovative approach to predicting congressional elections by pooling candidate, district-level, and national variables. National tides favored the Democrats in 2006, in the form of pro-Democratic voting intentions, low presidential approval ratings, and moderately slow growth in real disposable income. More than 6 months prior to the election, the K&B model predicted a 22-seat gain for the Democrats with a 95% chance that the party would take control of the House. The final tally gave the Democrats a gain of 30 seats, far above the 15 seats required for the party to recapture the House. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.