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Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and Users of Forecasts

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  • Dilek Onkal
  • M. Sinan Gonul
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    Abstract

    Both the providers and the users of forecasts appear to view judgmental adjustments as a sign of caring about the forecast. Although fine tunings are expected to increase practitioner satisfaction, adjustments may sometimes backfire and reduce forecast quality. Dilek and Sinan recommend that practitioners use caution in making adjustments, that they rely on support tools, and that they try to understand the motivations and expectations behind the adjustment process.. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Institute of Forecasters in its journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 13-17.

    Volume (Year): (2005)
    Issue (Month): 1 (June)
    Pages: 13-17

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    Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:13-17

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    Web page: http://www.forecasters.org/
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    Cited by:
    1. Eroglu, Cuneyt & Croxton, Keely L., 2010. "Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 116-133, January.
    2. ├ľnkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep SayIm, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68, January.

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