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News shocks and business cycles

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Author Info

  • Per Krusell
  • Alisdar McKay

Abstract

This article considers the question, raised by Beaudry and Portier in their recent articles, of whether "news shocks" can lead to expansions and contractions that look like business cycle movements. News shocks are to be thought of solely as affecting expectations (regarding future events) and thus do not influence current resource restrictions at all. So the question is, for example, whether news about lower future productivity could lead our key aggregate variables—consumption, investment, and employment—to co-move down now. Beaudry and Portier make the point that standard neoclassical models clearly will not allow this outcome, and they, along with other researchers in follow-up work, suggest elaborations on the standard model that would. In the present research, we review this literature and propose a very simple model that does quite well in predicting co-movements in response to news shocks. The model is based on a departure from competitive labor markets: It uses a standard Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides view that unemployment is determined as a function of search/matching frictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its journal Economic Quarterly.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 4Q ()
Pages: 373-397

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2010:i:4q:p:373-397:n:vol.96no.4

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycles ; Economic growth;

References

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  1. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2007. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," IEW - Working Papers 351, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Flodén, Martin, 2007. "Vintage Capital and Expectations Driven Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6113, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "A, B, C’s (And D’s) For Understanding VARS," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Lawrence Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
  5. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni & Olivier J. Blanchard, 2009. "News, Noise and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," 2009 Meeting Papers 99, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2005. "Unemployment and vacancy fluctuations in the matching model: inspecting the mechanism," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 19-50.
  9. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," NBER Working Papers 15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," Open Access publications from University of Toulouse 1 Capitole http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole.
  11. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  12. Walentin, Karl, 2009. "Expectation Driven Business Cycles with Limited Enforcement," Working Paper Series 229, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Oct 2011.
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Cited by:
  1. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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