Since the late 1990s, the combination of relatively high services inflation and declining goods prices has produced a record-level gap in these inflation rates. Some commentators argue that if the gap between services and goods inflation continues to expand in this manner, the outcome will be either faster overall inflation or deflation. This article examines the relationship between these divergent inflation rates from 1967 to 2002. The authors find that while the level of each inflation rate is subject to permanent shifts, the gap between services inflation and goods inflation over time remains stable. Moreover, when the gap is above its long-run value, as it currently is, equilibrium is restored through a rise in goods inflation and a slowing of services inflation. Their results suggest that concerns over an imminent marked acceleration or dramatic slowing in inflation may be unwarranted.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.
Volume (Year): (2004) Issue (Month): Dec () Pages: 19-31 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML,
plain text,
BibTeX,
RIS (EndNote),
ReDIF
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: