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Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations

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  • Wändi Bruine de Bruin
  • Simon Potter
  • Robert Rich
  • Giorgio Topa
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw

Abstract

Expectations about future inflation are generally thought to play an important role in households’ decisions about spending and saving. They are also of great interest to central bankers, who take them into account when determining policy or assessing the effectiveness of communications with the public. To help improve existing survey measures of inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently joined with other institutions and academic consultants to develop a set of survey questions that will yield more reliable information on households’ inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty, and expectations about future wage changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2010)
Issue (Month): Aug/Sep ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2010:i:aug/sep:n:v.16no.7

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Households - Economic aspects ; Economic surveys ; Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; Economic forecasting;

References

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  1. Wändi Bruine De Bruin & Charles F. Manski & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2011. "Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 454-478, 04.
  2. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon Potter & Michael Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2010. "The Relationships among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 200-207, February.
  4. Ranyard, Rob & Missier, Fabio Del & Bonini, Nicolao & Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara, 2008. "Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 378-400, August.
  5. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Julie S. Downs & Baruch Fischhoff & Giorgio Topa & Olivier Armantier, 2010. "The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation," Staff Reports 443, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Bart Hobijn & Kristin Mayer & Carter Stennis & Giorgio Topa, 2009. "Household inflation experiences in the U.S.: a comprehensive approach," Working Paper Series 2009-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. José Antonio Murillo Garza & Paula Sánchez Romeu, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.
  2. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2012. "The price is right: updating of inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment," Staff Reports 543, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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