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Coping with terms-of-trade shocks in developing countries

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Author Info

  • Christian Broda
  • Cedric Tille

Abstract

Sharp swings in a developing country's terms of trade, the price of its exports relative to the price of its imports, can seriously disrupt output growth. An analysis of the effects of a decline in export prices in seventy-five developing economies suggests that countries with a flexible exchange rate will experience a much milder contraction in output than their counterparts with fixed exchange rate regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2003:i:nov:n:v.9no.11

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Related research

Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Developing countries ; Exports ; Imports ; Prices ; International trade ; Gross domestic product;

References

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  1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  2. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 95-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Jonathan David Ostry & Anne Marie Gulde & Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 95/121, International Monetary Fund.
  4. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
  5. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
  6. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2000. "What Causes Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," NBER Working Papers 7462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Terms of Trade and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-01, Banco de México.
  2. Aizenman, Joshua, 2007. "International reserves management and the current account," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt22q271t2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  3. Hussain Nureldin & Gunter Bernard G., 2005. "Working Paper 75 - External Shocks and the HIPC Initiative: Impacts on Growth and Poverty in Africa," Working Paper Series 210, African Development Bank.
  4. Zafar, Ali, 2004. "What happens when a country does not adjust to terms of trade shocks? the case of oil-rich Gabon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3403, The World Bank.
  5. Eicher, Theo S. & Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 876-896, October.
  6. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "The economics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 163-187.

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