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Back to the future with Keynes

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Author Info
Lee E. Ohanian

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Abstract

This article analyzes Keynes's "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren"- an essay presenting Keynes's views about economic growth into the 21st century - from the perspective of modern growth theory. I find that the implicit theoretical framework used by Keynes to form his expectations about the 21st-century world economy is remarkably close to modern growth models, featuring a stable steady-state growth path driven by technological progress. On the other hand, Keynes's forecast of employment in the 21st century is far off the mark, reflecting a mistaken view that the income elasticity of leisure is much higher than that of consumption.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 10-16
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:2008:i:jul:p:10-16:n:v.32no.1

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Related research
Keywords: Economic history ; National income;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "The great U.K. depression: a puzzle and possible resolution," Staff Report 295, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-80, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cooley, Thomas F & Ohanian, Lee E, 1997. "Postwar British Economic Growth and the Legacy of Keynes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 439-72, June.
  4. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Cole, Harold L & Mailath, George J & Postlewaite, Andrew, 1992. "Social Norms, Savings Behavior, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1092-1125, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Lee Ohanian & Andrea Raffo & Richard Rogerson, 2006. "Long-term changes in labor supply and taxes: evidence from OECD countries, 1956-2004," Research Working Paper RWP 06-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anna M. Carabelli & Mario A. Cedrini, 2009. "The Economic Problem of Happiness. Keynes on Happiness and Economics," Working Papers 123, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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