Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

No relief in sight for the U.S. economy

Contents:

Author Info

  • David E. Runkle
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    For at least the next two years, the U.S. economy will grow more slowly than it has on average since World War II. This is the forecast of a Bayesian vector autoregression model developed and used by researchers at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank. The model's previous forecast—of a very weak start to the 1991–92 recovery—was remarkably accurate. Both forecasts are supported by evidence on long-term problems among consumers, in the commercial real estate industry, and at all levels of government. These problems will most likely constrain economic growth for years, although short spurts of strength could appear anytime, due to unpredictable special factors.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr1642.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr1642.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

    Volume (Year): (1992)
    Issue (Month): Fall ()
    Pages: 13-20

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1992:i:fall:p:13-20:n:v.16no.4

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291
    Phone: (612) 204-5000
    Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:
    Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/

    Related research

    Keywords: Economic conditions - United States ; Business forecasting;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1992:i:fall:p:13-20:n:v.16no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.