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Credit Expansion and Markups

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Abstract

This article documents new empirical facts about the effects of credit expansion on the aggregate markup and markup dispersion in the United States. We use U.S. macroeconomic data and Jordà's local projection and single-equation estimation methods. The results for both methods show that the aggregate markup and markup dispersion increase in response to both a firm debt shock and a household debt shock. The previous literature mostly focused on the effect of firm debt financing on firm markups. Extending previous research, our study shows that household credit expansion also plays a role in firm markups. This finding calls for further theoretical and analytical studies to understand the underlying mechanism regarding the effect of household credit expansion on firm markups.

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  • YiLi Chien & Hyungsuk Lee & Junsang Lee, 2022. "Credit Expansion and Markups," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(4), pages 297-316, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:94617
    DOI: 10.20955/r.104.297-316
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chevalier, Judith A & Scharfstein, David S, 1996. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Countercyclical Markups: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 703-725, September.
    2. Campello, Murillo, 2003. "Capital structure and product markets interactions: evidence from business cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 353-378, June.
    3. Robert E. Hall, 2018. "Using Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the US Economy," NBER Working Papers 25251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit expansion; aggregate markup; markup dispersion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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