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A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Author

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  • Didem Tuzemen

Abstract

The author presented a new estimate of the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Based on this new estimate, the natural rate of unemployment has declined by 0.4 percentage point since 1994 and is currently 4.6 percent. Ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Didem Tuzemen, 2017. "A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-4, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkmb:00059
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    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/publications/research/mb/articles/2017/new-estimate-natural-rate-unemployment
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce Fallick & Christopher L. Foote, 2022. "The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States," Working Papers 22-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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