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Asset market linkages in crisis periods

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Author Info

  • Philipp Hartmann
  • Stefan Straetmans
  • Casper G. de Vries

Abstract

We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure. Contrary to correlation analysis, this non-parametric measure is not predisposed towards the normal distribution and can account for non-linear relationships. Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes in stock markets are about two times more likely than in bond markets. Moreover, stock-bond contagion is about as frequent as flight to quality from stocks into bonds. Extreme cross-border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages, illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration. JEL Classification: G1; F3; C49.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 555-576

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhpr:y:2001:i:may:p:555-576

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Keywords: Financial markets ; Bank assets ; Stocks ; Bonds;

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References

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  1. Bodart, V. & Reding, P., 1998. "Exchange Rate Regime, Volatility and International Correlations on Bond and Stock Markets," Papers 204, Notre-Dame de la Paix, Sciences Economiques et Sociales.
  2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
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  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  10. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
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  14. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. LONGIN, François & SOLNIK, Bruno, 2000. "Extreme correlation of international equity markets," Les Cahiers de Recherche 705, HEC Paris.
  16. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1, October.
  17. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38.
  18. de Haan, Laurens & Resnick, Sidney I. & Rootzén, Holger & de Vries, Casper G., 1989. "Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to arch processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-224, August.
  19. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
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