Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?

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Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?

Author Info

Marie Diron
Benoît Mojon

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Abstract

The authors show that quantified inflation objectives, which have been adopted by many industrialized countries, can be used as rule-of-thumb forecasting devices. Remarkably, they yield smaller forecast errors than widely used forecasting models and the forecasts of professional experts.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 33-45
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2008:i:qii:p:33-45:n:vol.32no.2

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References listed on IDEAS
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Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2003. "Can rational expectations sticky-price models explain inflation dynamics?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Karl Whelan & Jeremy Rudd, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 181, Society for Computational Economics.
- Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area : some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Research series 200703-30, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Banco de EspaÃ±a Working Papers 0703, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
- Dias, Daniel & Sabbatini, Roberto & Dossche, Maarten & Stahl, Harald & Gautier, Erwan & Vermeulen, Philip & Hernando, Ignacio, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Silvia Fabiani & Claudia Kwapil & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Y. Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad C. J. Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area - new survey evidence," Working Paper Series 535, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the Euro area: new survey evidence," Banco de EspaÃ±a Working Papers 0536, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Research series 200509-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylized facts from individual consumer price data," Working Paper Series 524, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Banco de EspaÃ±a Working Papers 0528, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, . "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England's suite of statistical forecasting models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 772-792, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Scott Roger & Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? The International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/163, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2008-9-26.

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