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Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-cased rules in a two-bloc model

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  • N. Batini
  • P. Levine
  • J. Pearlman

Abstract

We examine the performance of forward-looking inflation-forecast-based rules in open economies. In a New Keynesian two-bloc model, a methodology first employed by Batini and Pearlman (2002) is used to obtain analytically the feedback parameters/horizon pairs associated with unique and stable equilibria. Three key findings emerge: first, indeterminacy occurs for any value of the feedback parameter on inflation if the forecast horizon lies too far into the future. Second, the problem of indeterminacy is intrinsically more serious in the open economy. Third, the problem is compounded further in the open economy when central banks respond to expected consumer, rather than producer price inflation.

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Article provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2003)
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2003:x:36

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy;

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Fiorella De Fiore & Zheng Liu, 2002. "Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules," Working Paper Series 173, European Central Bank.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2002. "Menu costs and the long-run output-inflation trade-off," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 95-100, June.
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  10. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Nicoletta Batini & Joe Pearlman, 2002. "Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 182, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
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  16. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 2009. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521104609.
  17. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. "Implementing Monetary Cooperation Through Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
  19. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real indeterminacy in monetary models with nominal interest rate distortions: the problem with inflation targets," Working Paper 9818R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  20. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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