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Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin

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  • Kenneth Kasa

Abstract

This paper estimates a linearized, stochastic version of Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) credit cycle model, using land price data from Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. It is shown that the welfare costs of borrowing constraints are positively related to the persistence of (detrended) land price fluctuations. When the residual demand curve for land is inelastic and the steady state share of land held by the constrained sector is less than 30 percent, welfare costs are less than 1 percent GDP in all countries. However, the strained sector becomes more important and as the elasticity of unconstrained land demand increases. For example, if the efficient share of the constrained sector is 50 percent and the residual demand elasticity is 2.0, then costs range from 9 percent of GDP in Korea, where fluctuations are relatively transitory, to 11 percent of GDP in Japan, where land price fluctuations are the most persistent.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 17-28

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1998:p:17-28:n:3

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Keywords: Asia ; Pacific Area ; Financial crises - Asia;

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References

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  1. Edison, Hali J & Luangaram, Pongsak & Miller, Marcus, 1998. "Asset Bubbles, Domino Effects and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
  4. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gertler, Mark, 1992. "Financial Capacity and Output Fluctuations in an Economy with Multi-period Financial Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 455-72, July.
  6. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Kasa, Kenneth & Huh, Chan, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 68-80, February.
  8. Jeffrey Lacker, 2001. "Collateralized Debt as the Optimal Contract," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 842-859, October.
  9. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  11. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September.
  12. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Agliari, A. & Assenza, T. & Delli Gatti, D. & Santoro, E., 2007. ""Credit Cycle" in an OLG Economy with Money and Bequest," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  2. Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2011. "Collateral Constraints and Legal Protection of Lenders: A Macroeconomic Perspective," MPRA Paper 35356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2003. "Credit Constraints and the Current Account: A Test for the Japanese Economy," KIER Working Papers 573, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Assenza, Tiziana & Agliari, Anna & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Santoro, Emiliano, 2009. "Borrowing constraints and complex dynamics in an OLG framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 656-669, November.
  5. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2009. "The boom and the bust of the Japanese economy: A quantitative look at the period 1980-2000," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 116-131, January.
  6. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2006. "Amplifying Business Cycles through Credit Constraints," MPRA Paper 1808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Soft Landings (February 2000), with Martin Schneider," UCLA Economics Online Papers 241, UCLA Department of Economics.

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