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International financial market integration and linkages of national interest rates

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  • Adrian W. Throop
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    Abstract

    This article finds that even in the 1980's, when barriers to international capital mobility had been largely eliminated, there was no measurable tendency for real interest rates between the U.S. and the major industrial countries to converge. Moreover, the estimated short-run responses of both short-term and long-term interest rates to one another have been exceedingly weak. As a consequence, it appears that U.S. and foreign central banks have been able to influence their domestic interest rates quite independently from the influence of interest rates abroad, despite a high degree of international capital mobility.

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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/review/1994/94-3_3-18.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (1994)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 3-18

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1994:p:3-18:n:3

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    Keywords: Interest rates ; Foreign exchange rates ; Capital movements;

    References

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    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal Across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," NBER Working Papers 1048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1987. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," NBER Working Papers 2303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Adrian W. Throop, 1993. "A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    5. Bruce Kasman & Charles Pigott, 1988. "Interest rate divergences among the major industrial nations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 28-44.
    6. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Helen Popper, 1990. "International capital mobility: direct evidence from long-term currency swaps," International Finance Discussion Papers 386, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
    10. Modjtahedi, Bagher, 1988. "Dynamics of real interest differentials : An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1191-1211, July.
    11. David A. Hsieh, 1982. "Tests of Rational Expectations and No Risk Premium in Forward Exchange Markats," NBER Working Papers 0843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. I A Venetis & A Duarte & I Paya, 2006. "The long memory story of real interest rates. Can it be supported?," Working Papers 578952, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    2. Angelos Kanas & Georgios Tsiotas, 2005. "Real interest rates linkages between the USA and the UK in the postwar period," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 251-262.
    3. Nikiforos Laopodis, 2001. "International Interest-Rate Transmission and the “German Dominance Hypothesis†Within EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 347-377, October.
    4. Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
    5. Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M. & Su Zhou, 1997. "Linkage in EMS term structures: evidence from common trend and transitory components," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 595-607, August.
    6. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.
    7. Ioannis A. Venetis & Agustin Duarte & Ivan Paya, 2004. "The long memory story of ex post real interest rates. Can it be supported?," Econometrics 0404004, EconWPA.
    8. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudré, 2007. "On the contingency of equilibrium exchange rates with time- consistent economic policies," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    9. Ciner, Cetin, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between international bond markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 290-303, October.
    10. Al-Awad, Mouawiya & Grennes, Thomas J., 2002. "Real interest parity and transaction costs for the group of 10 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 363-372.
    11. J.M. Berk & K.H.W. Knot, 1999. "Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of PPP-BasedExchange Rate Expectations," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 37, Netherlands Central Bank.
    12. Al Awad, Mouawiya & Goodwin, Barry K., 1998. "Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 881-907, December.
    13. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.
    14. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.

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