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Using a nominal GDP rule to guide discretionary monetary policy

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  • John P. Judd
  • Brian Motley

Abstract

Given doubts about the reliability of the monetary aggregates as intermediate targets of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve attempts to meet its dual goals--gradual reduction of inflation and mitigation of cyclical downturns in output--through purely discretionary adjustments of an interest rate instrument in response to myriad incoming data. A procedure in which the Fed would consult a nominal GDP feedback rule, while retaining the flexibility to use discretion in its monetary policy decisions, might contribute to achieving its long-run inflation goal without significantly interfering with its ability to pursue its short-run cyclical goal. This paper describes such a policy regime, and presents some empirical evidence pertinent to an assessment of how it might work.

Suggested Citation

  • John P. Judd & Brian Motley, 1993. "Using a nominal GDP rule to guide discretionary monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1993:p:3-11:n:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Flint Brayton & Gregory D. Hess & David H. Small, 1993. "Nominal income targeting with the monetary base as instrument: an evaluation of McCallum's rule," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    6. Barro, Robert J, 1986. "Recent Developments in the Theory of Rules versus Discretion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(380a), pages 23-37, Supplemen.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996. "Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
    2. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 1998. "Evaluating McCallum's Rule When Monetary Policy Matters," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 451-485, July.
    3. Thornton, Saranna R., 1998. "Suitable policy instruments for monetary rules," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 379-397, July.
    4. Ray Fair, 2003. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.
    5. Dueker, Michael & Kim, Gyuhan, 1999. "A monetary policy feedback rule in Korea's fast-growing economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-31, January.
    6. Thornton, Saranna Robinson, 2000. "How do broader monetary aggregates and divisia measures of money perform in McCallum's adaptive monetary rule?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 181-204.
    7. Horrace, William C., 1998. "Submodel estimation of a structural vector error correction model under cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 23-29, April.
    8. Lee, Kang-Soek & Werner, Richard A., 2018. "Reconsidering Monetary Policy: An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Nominal GDP Growth in the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 26-34.

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