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Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects

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  • Adrian W. Throop
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    Abstract

    This paper finds that consumer attitudes, as reflected in surveys of consumer sentiment, have a significant influence on household purchases of durable goods. Normally, consumer sentiment moves with current economic conditions and bears a stable relationship to a few economic variables. At times of a major economic or political event like the Gulf War, however, consumer sentiment can move independently from current economic conditions. At such times it provides useful information about future consumer expenditures that is not otherwise available.

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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/review/1992/92-1_35-59.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (1992)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 35-59

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1992:p:35-59:n:1

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    Related research

    Keywords: Consumer behavior ; Consumption (Economics);

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    Cited by:
    1. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
    2. Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December.
    3. Pami Dua, 2004. "Analysis of Consumers' Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses," Working papers 127, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    5. Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1105-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    7. Choy, Keen Meng & Leong, Kenneth & Tay, Anthony S., 2006. "Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-460, June.
    8. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "The European Consumer: United In Diversity?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-022-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    9. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
    10. Dion, David Pascal, 2006. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case," MPRA Paper 911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. C. Alan Garner, 2002. "Consumer confidence after September 11," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II.
    12. Qiao, Zhuo & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2009. "Linear and nonlinear causality between changes in consumption and consumer attitudes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 161-164, March.
    13. Adrian Throop, 1992. "Causes and effects of consumer sentiment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr17.

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