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Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index

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Author Info

  • David Lang
  • Kevin J. Lansing

Abstract

The current economic recovery is proceeding at a tepid pace despite massive federal fiscal stimulus and extremely low interest rates. Forecasts derived from business cycle indicators produced by the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks predict that real U.S. GDP growth through the first half of 2011 will remain at or below potential. If these forecasts prove accurate, then the historical relationship between real GDP growth and the labor market suggests that the unemployment rate could rise by as much as 0.5 percentage point during this period.

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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-29.html
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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-29.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): sep27 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:sep27:n:2010-29

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Keywords: Economic forecasting - United States ; Business cycles ; Unemployment;

References

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  1. Charles L. Evans & Chin Te Liu & Genevieve Pham-Kanter, 2002. "The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 26-43.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2010. "After the Fall," NBER Working Papers 16334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Congressional Budget Office, 2010. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update," Reports 21670, Congressional Budget Office.
  4. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.
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