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Adjusting the Unemployment Thermometer

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Abstract

Stay-at-home orders issued to slow the spread of COVID-19 may have severely distorted labor market statistics, notably the official unemployment rate. A method to correct the survey biases associated with the pandemic indicates that the true unemployment rate was substantially higher than the official rate in April and May. However, the biases appeared to fade thereafter, making the drop in June even more dramatic than implied by the official data.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Barnichon & Winnie Yee, 2020. "Adjusting the Unemployment Thermometer," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(27), pages 01-05, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:88688
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    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2020/september/adjusting-unemployment-thermometer/el2020-27.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Faberman, R. Jason & Mueller, Andreas I. & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2022. "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    Keywords

    covid-19; unemployment;

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