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Gaps versus growth rates in the Taylor Rule

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  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

There are many possible formulations of the Taylor rule. We consider two that use different measures of economic activity to which the Fed could react, the output gap and the growth rate of GDP, and investigate which captures past movements of the fed funds rate more closely. Looking at these rules through the lens of a partial-adjustment Taylor rule, we conclude that the gap rule does a better job of explaining the actual funds rate data, and provides a better rule-of-thumb for understanding historical monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2012. "Gaps versus growth rates in the Taylor Rule," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2012(17), pages 1-4, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2012:i:oct12:n:2012-17
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201217
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Diercks, 2016. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Anthony M. Diercks, 2015. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, & Optimal Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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