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The role of savings and investment in balancing the current account: some empirical evidence from the United States

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Author Info
Giovanni P. Olivei

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Abstract

Current account deficits ultimately reflect a disparity between a country's national savings and investment. As such, the issue of how current account balance is achieved in practice can be viewed in terms of whether it is savings or investment that adjusts to an external deficit. In this article, the author examines empirically how savings and investment have responded to current account imbalances in the United States over the past 40 years. The main finding is that, on average, investment was largely responsible for rebalancing the current account in the long run. The finding that investment has borne the largest fraction of the external adjustment conforms with the view that, in the long run, the national savings rate constrains a country's rate of investment. Thus, in a situation with outstanding net external debt, low levels of national savings ultimately imply low levels of domestic investment. To the extent that one views net additions of capital as essential for a country's future growth prospects, low savings may signify a reduction in future standards of living.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal New England Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 3-14
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:2000:i:jul:p:3-14

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Related research
Keywords: Saving and investment;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Martin Feldstein, 1992. "The Budget and Trade Deficits Aren't Really Twins," NBER Working Papers 3966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Owen F. Humpage, 2001. "International financial flows and the current business expansion," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr, pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  2. Torsten Schmidt & Torge Middendorf, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 0024, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
  3. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg," BCL working papers 13, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
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