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Current Issues on the Price of Oil: Decline, Forecasting, Volatility and Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Niaz Bashiri

    (FEEM)

  • Andrea Bastianin

    (FEEM and University of Milan)

  • Elisa Bortolussi

    (University of Milan-Bicocca)

  • Francesca Conti

    (FEEM)

  • Matteo Manera

    (FEEM and University of Milan - Bicocca)

  • Marcella Nicolini

    (FEEM and University of Pavia)

Abstract

The 2015 workshop on “Recent evolutions of oil and commodity prices”, organized by FEEM, focused on the sharp decline in the oil price in 2014. High crude oil production and slower demand growth explain a large fraction of the current low level of prices, but a complex set of factors is responsible. In light of these events, forecasting the price of oil is challenging and requires composite information: accurate forecasting models are able to predict this. The decline in price is reflected in an increase in oil price volatility and uncertainty, which have relevant implications on the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Niaz Bashiri & Andrea Bastianin & Elisa Bortolussi & Francesca Conti & Matteo Manera & Marcella Nicolini, . "Current Issues on the Price of Oil: Decline, Forecasting, Volatility and Uncertainty," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femre3:2015.07-02
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price Decline; Forecasting; Volatility; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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