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From Financial Integration to Sudden Stops? New Evidence from EU Transition Countries

Author

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  • Tomislav Globan

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

Abstract

This paper examines the temporal dynamics of the relationship between real and financial determinants of capital inflows and attempts to explain the background of the recent great sudden stop episode in EU transition countries. Using historical decomposition in a structural vector autoregression framework, we find that the major pre-crisis surge in capital inflows to EU transition countries coincides with a strong increase in correlation between the financial component and observed capital inflows. The consequences of these trends have been reflected in the high volatility of capital inflows and their retrenchment during the financial crisis. Analysis further shows that almost all sudden stop episodes in EU transition countries have been characterized by sudden increases in the volatility of financial components of capital inflows. Results are robust to various model specifications and different subcategories of capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomislav Globan, 2015. "From Financial Integration to Sudden Stops? New Evidence from EU Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(4), pages 336-359, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:4:p:336-359
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ozana Nadoveza Jelić & Jurica Šimurina, 2020. "Evaluating sectoral effects of agricultural nitrogen pollution reduction policy in Croatia within a CGE framework," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda, 2016. "Trade in Parts and Components across Europe," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(3), pages 236-262, June.
    3. Tomislav Globan & Petar Sorić, 2017. "Financial integration before and after the crisis: Euler equations (re)visit European Union," EFZG Working Papers Series 1702, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    4. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2017. "Dopady vlastnické struktury, firemních charakteristik a krize na efektivitu českých podniků [Impact of Ownership Type, Firm Characteristics and Crisis on Efficiency of the Czech Firms]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(1), pages 3-25.
    5. Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda, 2016. "FDI and Ownership in Czech Firms: Pre- and Post-crisis Efficiency," KIER Working Papers 942, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital inflows; EU transition countries; financial and real shocks; financial integration; sudden stops;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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