IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v64y2014i5p352-373.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk-Return Convergence in CEE Stock Markets: Structural Breaks and Market Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Eduard Baumöhl

    (Faculty of Business Economics in Košice, University of Economics in Bratislava)

  • Štefan Lyócsa

    (Faculty of Business Economics in Košice, University of Economics in Bratislava)

Abstract

We analyze the risk-return characteristics of nine European emerging stock market indices over the period from January 2000 to December 2013. We show that (i) the return distances declined and structural breaks in this characteristic are sparse; (ii) distances between standard deviations are more time-varying than return distances and several structural breaks have been identified through this risk metric; (iii) the mixed characteristic, i.e. risk-return distances declined over time and were subject to an occurrence of several breaks. The relationship between risk-return characteristics and market volatility is also examined. While the results clearly showed that this relationship is generally positive, the return, risk and risk-return distances increased during the more volatile periods. At the same time, for several CEE markets, this effect is mitigated during bearish market conditions. Overall, our results suggest that even in times of higher volatility, benefits for investors from international diversification to CEE emerging markets may still exist.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduard Baumöhl & Štefan Lyócsa, 2014. "Risk-Return Convergence in CEE Stock Markets: Structural Breaks and Market Volatility," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(5), pages 352-373, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:64:y:2014:i:5:p:352-373
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1306_lyocsa.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    2. Gjika, Dritan & Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Stock market comovements in Central Europe: Evidence from the asymmetric DCC model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-64.
    3. Jan Babecky & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2013. "Financial Integration at Times of Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 25-45, March.
    4. Horvath, Roman & Petrovski, Dragan, 2013. "International stock market integration: Central and South Eastern Europe compared," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 81-91.
    5. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2011. "Equity market integration in emerging Balkan markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 296-307, September.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    7. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
    8. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2013. "Inference on Structural Breaks using Information Criteria," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 54-81, October.
    9. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 165-193, July.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    11. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    12. Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi‐Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, August.
    13. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Volatility and dynamic conditional correlations of worldwide emerging and frontier markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 175-183.
    14. Eun, Cheol S. & Lee, Jinsoo, 2010. "Mean-variance convergence around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 856-870, April.
    15. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    16. Ian Babetskii & Luboš Komárek & Zlatuše Komárková, 2007. "Financial Integration of Stock Markets among New EU Member States and the Euro Area," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(7-8), pages 341-362, September.
    17. Eduard Baumöhl & Tomáš Výrost, 2010. "Stock Market Integration: Granger Causality Testing with Respect to Nonsynchronous Trading Effects," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(5), pages 414-425, December.
    18. F. Cribari-Neto & S. G. Zarkos, 1999. "Bootstrap methods for heteroskedastic regression models: evidence on estimation and testing," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 211-228.
    19. Baele, Lieven & Ferrando, Annalisa & Hördahl, Peter & Krylova, Elizaveta & Monnet, Cyril, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    20. Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1994. "Testing the Convergence Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 576-579, August.
    21. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    22. E. Baumohl & S. Lyocsa & T. Vyrost, 2011. "Shift contagion with endogenously detected volatility breaks: the case of CEE stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 1103-1109.
    23. Lieven Baele, 2004. "Measuring European Financial Integration," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 509-530, Winter.
    24. Lahrech, Abdelmounaim & Sylwester, Kevin, 2011. "U.S. and Latin American stock market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1341-1357.
    25. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
    26. Geert Bekaert & Campbell Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad, 2003. "Equity market liberalization in emerging markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Jul), pages 53-74.
    27. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2016. "Testing financial markets convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: A non-linear single factor model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 323-334.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Volatility and dynamic conditional correlations of worldwide emerging and frontier markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 175-183.
    2. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2015. "Similarity of emerging market returns under changing market conditions: Markets in the ASEAN-4, Latin America, Middle East, and BRICs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-268.
    3. Baumohl, Eduard & Lyocsa, Stefan, 2013. "Volatility and dynamic conditional correlations of European emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 49898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eduard Baum??hl & ??tefan Ly??csa, 2014. "How smooth is the stock market integration of CEE-3?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1079, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    5. Baumöhl, Eduard, 2013. "Stock market integration between the CEE-4 and the G7 markets: Asymmetric DCC and smooth transition approach," MPRA Paper 43834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Eduard Baumöhl, 2014. "Determinanty integrácie akciových trhov krajín V4 [Determinants of CEE-4 Stock Market Integration]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 347-365.
    7. Boubaker, Sabri & Jouini, Jamel, 2014. "Linkages between emerging and developed equity markets: Empirical evidence in the PMG framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 322-335.
    8. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2022. "Euro area stock markets integration: Empirical evidence after the end of 2010 debt crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    9. Anita Radman Peša & Mejra Festić, 2012. "Testing the "EU Announcement Effect" on Stock Market Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in Croatia Between 2000 and 2010," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(4), pages 450-469.
    10. Burcu Erdogan, 2009. "How Does European Integration Affect the European Stock Markets?," Working Paper / FINESS 1.1a, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Country and industry convergence of equity markets: International evidence from club convergence and clustering," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 36-58.
    12. Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2015. "Granger causality stock market networks: Temporal proximity and preferential attachment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 262-276.
    13. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:4:id:434:p:450-469 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jouini, Jamel, 2015. "New empirical evidence from assessing financial market integration, with application to Saudi Arabia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 198-211.
    15. Ibrahim Bozkurt & Engin Akman, 2016. "Financial Integration into EU: The Romanian Case," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(42), pages 269-269, May.
    16. Priyanshi Gupta & Sanjay Sehgal, 2020. "Convergence of retail banking interest rates to households in euro area: time-varying measurement and determinants," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 25-65, February.
    17. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Evolution of International Stock and Bond Market Integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 12, pages 391-428, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Radoslaw Kurach, 2011. "Eurozone stock returns co-movement: Some findings for portfolio managers and central bankers," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, April.
    19. Anita Radman Peša & Elżbieta Wrońska-Bukalska & Jurica Bosna, 2017. "ARDL panel estimation of stock market indices and macroeconomic environment of CEE and SEE countries in the last decade of transition," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 205-221, December.
    20. Guglielmo Caporale & Burcu Erdogan & Vladimir Kuzin, 2015. "Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 481-498, August.
    21. Samia Nasreen & Sofia Anwar, 2020. "Financial Stability And The Role Of Economic And Financial Integration In South Asia: Evidence From Time-Series Data," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 303-333, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk-return characteristics; convergence; stock market integration; market volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:64:y:2014:i:5:p:352-373. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.