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Measuring the Financial Markets’ Perception of EMU Enlargement: The Role of Ambiguity Aversion

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Abstract

Market views on EMU enlargement are measured by a new indicator based on the short-term dynamics of forward spreads. Conceptually, this indicator stems from the notion of ambiguity-averse agents in the sense of Knight. Specifically, we attempt to operationalize the incomplete preferences framework, which may allow for multiple equilibria supported by one set of fundamentals. This equilibrium indeterminacy may offer a way to reconcile short-term fluctuations of market prices with a relatively stable underlying economic environment and expectations. The method was applied to data from Central European countries, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Comparing our results with financial market opinion surveys, the results of the proposed method seems to be in accordance with market expectations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 58 (2008)
Issue (Month): 05-06 (August)
Pages: 210-230

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:58:y:2008:i:5-6:p:210-230

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Keywords: ambiguity aversion; EMU calculators; EMU enlargement; EMU Poll; forwards; uncertainty;

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  1. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
  2. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  3. Rigotti, Luca & Shannon, Chris, 2001. "Uncertainty and Risk in Financial Markets," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6m42r5rr, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Extracting Information from Asset Prices: The Methodology of EMU Calculators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2004. "Ambiguity aversion and the absence of indexed debt," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 665-685, October.
  6. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1997. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 956-85, July.
  7. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  8. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  9. David K. Backus & Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2005. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 319-414 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00174562 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2002. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Absence of Wage Indexation," Economics Series Working Papers 111, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Financial markets' assessments of EMU : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 271-280, December.
  13. Angeloni, I. & Violi, R., 1997. "Long-Term Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and the Probability of EMU," Papers 322, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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