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Testing the Effectiveness of the Czech National Bank’s Foreign-Exchange Interventions

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  • Adam Geršl

    ()
    (Czech National Bank, and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

Abstract

This article reviews several approaches to testing the effectiveness of foreign-exchange interventions and applies some of these to data on interventions made by the Czech National Bank in 2001 and 2002. The reaction function of the CNB and the impact of interventions on exchange rates and on conditional and implied volatility are estimated, and the successfulness of interventions is discussed within the event-study approach. The results indicate that the interventions by the central bank had only a minor, short-term effect on exchange rates and, to a certain extent, contributed to increased conditional and implied volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 56 (2006)
Issue (Month): 09-10 (September)
Pages: 398-415

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:56:y:2006:i:9-10:p:398-415

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Related research

Keywords: effectiveness of intervention; event study; exchange rate; foreign-exchange intervention;

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References

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  1. Graciela Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ghosh, Atish R., 1992. "Is it signalling? Exchange intervention and the dollar-Deutschemark rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 201-220, May.
  3. Antonio Scalia, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some micro-analytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 579, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
  5. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
  6. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
  7. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
  8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Cem Karacadag & Roberto Pereira Guimarães & Shogo Ishii, 2006. "Official Foreign Exchange Intervention," IMF Occasional Papers 249, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
  11. Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 1992. "Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: An empirical investigation of daily effects," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 23-50.
  12. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  13. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange interventions during 1991-2001," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 377-381, September.
  14. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Cited by:
  1. Madhusudan Mohanty & Bat-el Berger, 2013. "Central bank views on foreign exchange intervention," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 55-74 Bank for International Settlements.

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