Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy
AbstractThis paper shows that an economy’s behavior differs significantly according to assumptions made on the formation of inflation expectations. We analyzed the behavior of an open economy in a regime of explicit inflation targeting with commitment. The economy is exposed to three different shocks – demand, supply, and exchange rate – and its reaction is analyzed under three different assumptions on inflation-expectations formation: naive, rational, and adaptive learning. The economy in which rational expectations were assumed showed the least volatile development and minimized the central bank’s loss function. The stabilizing effect of this forward-looking type of expectation was most evident in the case of supply shock. When naive expectations were assumed, the economy reacted to all shocks with significantly bigger and longer-lasting fluctuations. The worst results were obtained assuming adaptive-learning expectations, where shocks lead to large oscillations and the economy stabilized only several years after the shock.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 55 (2005)
Issue (Month): 7-8 (July)
inflation expectation; model simulation; monetary policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- John C. Williams, 2006.
"Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning,"
Working Paper Series
2006-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.