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Discrepancies: Why Do GDP Growth Rates Differ?

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  • Morten Jerven

    (Associate Professor in Global Change and International Relations, International Environment and Development Studies (Noragric), Norwegian University of Life Sciences, morten.jerven@nmbu.no)

Abstract

Why do GDP growth rates differ? In this paper I show how GDP levels and growth estimates travel from national statistical offices to international databases maintained by international financial institutions as well as datasets maintained by scholars. It makes the point that, strictly speaking, these databases are secondary sources, and only through meticulous backward tracking of how different data series have travelled from statistical offices to international datasets can their quality be determined. Thus far, most research has focussed on the different biases or changes resulting from different methodologies of harmonisation, such as different methods of expressing series in international currencies. This paper emphasises the role of the uneven application of benchmark revisions, clerical errors, and political negotiation in accounting for discrepancies in different sources of reported GDP growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Morten Jerven, 2016. "Discrepancies: Why Do GDP Growth Rates Differ?," Journal, Review of Agrarian Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 63-80, January-J.
    • Handle: RePEc:fas:journl:v:6:y:2016:i:1:p:63-80
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alwyn Young, 2012. "The African Growth Miracle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 696-739.
    2. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarociński, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 222-246, October.
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    5. Johnson, Simon & Larson, William & Papageorgiou, Chris & Subramanian, Arvind, 2013. "Is newer better? Penn World Table Revisions and their impact on growth estimates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 255-274.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    7. Morten Jerven, 2014. "African Growth Miracle or Statistical Tragedy?: Interpreting Trends in the Data Over the Past Two Decades," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Alwyn Young, 2012. "The African Growth Miracle," NBER Working Papers 18490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920, December.
    10. William Larson & Chris Papageorgiou & Arvind Subramania & Simon Johnson, 2009. "Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and the Growth Literature," 2009 Meeting Papers 858, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Jerven, Morten, 2012. "An unlevel playing field: national income estimates and reciprocal comparison in global economic history," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 107-128, March.
    12. Jerven, Morten, 2014. "African growth miracle or statistical tragedy? Interpreting trends in the data over the past two decades," WIDER Working Paper Series 114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Cited by:

    1. Roger, Lionel, 2019. "A replication of "The long-run impact of foreign aid in 36 African countries: Insights from multivariate time series analysis" (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2014)," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-53.

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