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Using Stated Preferences to Forecast the Market Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles

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  • J?rome Massiani

Abstract

Together with Bass diffusion and, to a lesser extent, Total Cost of Ownership, Stated Preferences are the most popular method used to forecast the future diffusion of electric and alternative fuel vehicles. In this paper, we analyse the merits and limitations of SP compared with other methods. We also review the empirical results provided by SP surveys, and assess their validity for modelling market diffusion. We also propose a metaanalysis- based Synthetic Utility Function that consolidates results across various studies and can be used for simulation purposes in a Discrete Choice Model setting. This approach makes simulation results less dependent on the idiosyncrasies of individual surveys, and is therefore helpful for formulating robust policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • J?rome Massiani, 2012. "Using Stated Preferences to Forecast the Market Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(3), pages 93-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:fan:scresc:v:html10.3280/scre2012-003006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leurent, Fabien & Windisch, Elisabeth, 2015. "Benefits and costs of electric vehicles for the public finances: An integrated valuation model based on input–output analysis, with application to France," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-62.
    2. Massiani, Jérôme & Gohs, Andreas, 2015. "The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
    3. Hirte, Georg & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2013. "The optimal subsidy on electric vehicles in German metropolitan areas: A spatial general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 515-528.
    4. J�r�me Massiani, 2013. "SP surveys for electric and alternative fuel vehicles: are we doing the right thing?," Working Papers 2013_01, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Massiani, Jérôme, 2015. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of policies for the development of electric vehicles in Germany: Methods and results," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 19-26.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Preferenze dichiarate; propulsione alternativa; diffusione di mercato.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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