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Türkiye Ekonomisinde Para Arzının İçsel Süreci

Author

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  • Gökçer ÖZGÜR

    (Hacettepe University)

Abstract

Post Keynesçi iktisat akımı, bankacılık sektörünün özel sektöre verdiği krediler nedeniyle para arzının içsel olarak büyüdüğünü öne sürer. Bu çalışmada, bu iddia Türkiye ekonomisi için incelenmiş ve bu amaçla bankacılık sektörünün özel sektöre verdiği krediler ile geniş para arzları arasındaki ilişki eşbütünleşme ve vektör hata düzeltme modelleri ile incelenmiştir. M2, M3 ve M3A ile banka kredileri arasında beklenilen sonuçlar elde edilmiş; ancak, döviz tevdiat hesaplarını içeren M2Y ve L0 ile banka kredileri arasında benzer sonuçlar bulunamamıştır. Tevdiat hesaplarının para ikâmesi tarafından etkilendiği bilinmektedir. Ancak, bu hesaplar Türk Lirası cinsinden geniş para arzına dahil edilmektedir ve döviz kurundaki değişimlerin bu hesaplar ve dolayısıyla M2Y ve L0’ın miktarının artmasına yol açtığı gözlenmiştir. Bu nedenle, para ikamesini temsil eden bir değişken ile döviz kuru verileri ilk modele eklenerek eşbütünleşme ve vektör hata düzeltme modelleri yeniden hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, para arzının banka kredileri tarafından içsel olarak büyüdüğü öngörüsüyle uyumludur.

Suggested Citation

  • Gökçer ÖZGÜR, 2011. "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Para Arzının İçsel Süreci," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 22(78), pages 67-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:22:y:2011:i:78:p:67-90
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.20032
    Note: [English Title] The Endogenous Process of Money Supply in Turkish Economy [English Abstract] Post Keynesian economics argue that money supply grows endogenously through bank credit to private sector. In this study, this argument is examined for the Turkish economy and the relationship between bank credit to private sector and broad money is analyzed with cointegration and vector error-correction models. The expected results were found between M2, M3, M3A and bank loans; however, the relationship could not be established between bank loans and M2Y, L0 which include foreign exchange deposits. It is known that the volume of foreign exchange deposits is affected by currency substitution. However, these deposits are included into broad money in Turkish Lira terms, and it is observed that changes in exchange rate can alter the volume of these deposits, and consequently, the volumes of M2Y and L0. Therefore, a proxy for currency substitution and exchange rate are included to former models, and cointegration and vector error-correction models are reestimated. The findings are in accordance with the argument that money supply grows endogenously with bank credit. [English Keywords] Post-Keynesian economics, money supply, bank credit, currency substitution.
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    Keywords

    Post Keynesçi iktisat; para arzı; banka kredileri; para ikâmesi.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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