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An Intervention Analysis of the Behavior of the Iranian Real Gross Domestic Product: 1959-2001

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  • Ebrahim Hosseini Nasab

    ()
    (Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities,Tarbiat Modares University,Tehran, Iran)

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    Abstract

    The Iranian real gross domestic product in the period of 1959-2001 reveals a relatively high degree of instability. Some of this instability almost certainly arises because of external shocks to the economy. This paper focuses on three shocks, or interventions, which seem to have had particularly significant impacts on the Iranian economy. These are the political upheavals of mid 1971’s, the 1981-1989 War, and the oil shock and some policy reversals of early 1991’s. We construct a time series model for the purpose of intervention analysis and use this model to calculate the impact on the Iranian economy of each and every of these interventions.

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    File URL: ftp://80.66.179.253/eut/journl/20072-1.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Economics faculty of Tehran university in its journal Iranian Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (spring)
    Pages: 1-19

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    Handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:12:y:2007:i:2:p:1

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    Postal: P.O. Box 14155-6445, Postal Code 14114, Tehran
    Phone: (021)634002-4
    Web page: http://economics.ut.ac.ir/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Iranian Economy; Time Series Analysis; Intervention Analysis; Dummy Variable Analysis; Iraq-Iran War; Political Upheavals; Oils Shocks.;

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    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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