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The Impact of Government Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland

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  • HUGH HENNESSY

    (Economic and Social Research Institute,Dublin)

  • RICHARD S. J. TOL

    (Economic and Social Research Institute Dublin,Trinity College Dublin, Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam)

Abstract

We construct a model of the stock of private cars in the Republic of Ireland. The model distinguishes cars by fuel, engine size and age. The modelled car stock is built up from a long history of data on sales, and calibrated to recent data on actual stock. We complement the data on the number of cars with data on fuel efficiency and distance driven – which together give fuel use and emissions – and the costs of purchase, ownership and use. We use the model to project the car stock from 2010 to 2025. The following results emerge. The 2009 reform of the vehicle registration and motor tax has led to a dramatic shift from petrol to diesel cars. Fuel efficiency has improved and will improve further as a result, but because diesel cars are heavier, carbon dioxide emissions are reduced but not substantially so. The projected emissions in 2020 are roughly the same as in 2007. In a second set of simulations, we impose the government targets for electrification of transport. As all-electric vehicles are likely to displace small, efficient, and little-driven petrol cars, the effect on carbon dioxide emissions is minimal. We also consider the scrappage scheme, which has little effect as it applies to a small fraction of the car stock only,

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economic and Social Studies in its journal Economic and Social Review.

Volume (Year): 42 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 135–157

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Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:42:y:2011:i:2:p:135-157

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  1. Olof Johansson-Stenman, 2002. "Estimating individual driving distance by car and public transport use in Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 959-967.
  2. Rouwendal, Jan & de Vries, Frans, 1999. "The taxation of drivers and the choice of car fuel type," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-35, February.
  3. Vickerman, R., 2000. "Evaluation methodologies for transport projects in the United Kingdom," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 7-16, January.
  4. Inge Mayeres & Stef Proost, 2000. "Should diesel cars in Europe be discouraged?," Energy, Transport and Environment Working Papers Series ete0005, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, Energy, Transport and Environment.
  5. Van Schijndel, W. -J. & Dinwoodie, J., 2000. "Congestion and multimodal transport: a survey of cargo transport operators in the Netherlands," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 231-241, October.
  6. Giblin, S. & McNabola, A., 2009. "Modelling the impacts of a carbon emission-differentiated vehicle tax system on CO2 emissions intensity from new vehicle purchases in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1404-1411, April.
  7. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007.
  8. Smith, William J., 2010. "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles--A low-carbon solution for Ireland?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1485-1499, March.
  9. Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
  10. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1j6814b3, University of California Transportation Center.
  11. John FitzGerald & Jonathan Hore & Ide Kearney, 2002. "A Model for Forecasting Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland," Papers WP146, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  12. Ryan, Lisa & Ferreira, Susana & Convery, Frank, 2009. "The impact of fiscal and other measures on new passenger car sales and CO2 emissions intensity: Evidence from Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 365-374, May.
  13. Devitt, Conor & Hennessy, Hugh & Lyons, Seán & Murphy, Liam & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The Energy and Environment Review 2010," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS19.
  14. Pock, Markus, 2010. "Gasoline demand in Europe: New insights," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 54-62, January.
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Cited by:
  1. John Eakins, 2014. "An Application of the Double Hurdle Model to Petrol and Diesel Household Expenditures in Ireland," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 145, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  2. Driscoll, Áine & Lyons, Seán & Mariuzzo, Franco & Tol, Richard S. J., 2012. "Simulating Demand for Electrical Vehicles using Revealed Preference Data," Papers WP437, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. John Eakins, 2013. "The Determinants of Household Car Ownership: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Household Budget Survey," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 144, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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