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Opening and Closing Asymmetry: Empirical Analysis from ISE Xetra

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  • Robert Kelly

    (Dept. of Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Co. Kildare)

Abstract

Overnight news yields difficulties for price discovery at market opening culminating in additional return volatility. Biais et al. (2007) show opening prices are sensitive to order flow from the pre-trading session. We investigate the existence of volatility asymmetry between opening and closing returns and trader over-reaction on the Irish Stock Exchange (ISE). Opening on the ISE follows a non-transparent pre-trading session. We estimate opening returns are 10 per cent more volatile than closing returns. This is significantly smaller compared to other exchanges, such as LSE. The LSE operates under a transparent pre-trading session, which is susceptible to order flow manipulation. We implement an ARMA(1,1) framework to investigate the speed of trader reaction to news. Over-reaction is recorded at the morning auction but is smaller in magnitude when compared to international markets with transparent pre-trading and ‘non-binding’ orders. The level of price reversal bolsters the over-reaction argument. We estimate a 30 per cent reversal of overnight returns with one third taking place in the first thirty minutes of trading.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economic and Social Studies in its journal Economic and Social Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 55-78

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Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:39:y:2008:i:1:p:55-78

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  2. Pagano, Michael S. & Schwartz, Robert A., 2003. "A closing call's impact on market quality at Euronext Paris," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 439-484, June.
  3. Theobald, Michael & Yallup, Peter, 1998. "Measuring cash-futures temporal effects in the UK using partial adjustment factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 221-243, February.
  4. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  5. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia, 2005. "Explaining volatility and serial correlation in opening and closing returns: A study of the FT-30 components," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, August.
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  7. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
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  9. Biais, Bruno & Bisière, Christophe & Pouget, Sébastien, 2009. "Equilibrium Discovery and Preopening Mechanisms in an Experimental Market," TSE Working Papers 09-001, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
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  16. Sandro Brusco & Carolina Manzano & Mikel Tapia, 2003. "Price Discovery In The Pre-Opening Period. Theory And Evidence From The Madrid Stock Exchange," Business Economics Working Papers wb035814, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  17. Ananth N. Madhavan, . "Trading Mechanisms in Securities Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 16-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  18. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December.
  19. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1989. "Market microstructure and price discovery on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 341-370, November.
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