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The Problem of Determining the Energy Mix: from the Portfolio Theory to the Reality of Energy Planning in the Spanish Case

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  • Fernando de Llano Paz
  • Anxo Calvo Silvosa
  • Martín Portos García
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    Abstract

    This paper deals with the problem of defining efficient portfolios of electricity production assets using the Portfolio Theory, that is to say, by applying the return-risk analysis not to a single asset (e.g. a power station, a wind farm, a combined cycle gas plant), but to the set of technologies operating in a territory at a definite time. First of all, we study to what extent this methodological approach can be implemented to solve the problem of defining efficient sets of power production technologies, considering the fact that the Portfolio Theory was initially proposed in the field of financial investment. We focus on the main concepts of this framework (return, risk and diversification) and its uses in the energy mix context. Second, the evolution of the Spanish generation mix during the ten year period 2001-2010 is analysed according to two different variables: capacity and produced energy. Furthermore, we pay attention to the Spanish Government 2020 energy planning and compare it with several scenarios suggested using different patterns observed during 2001-2010 period. Finally, the most important conclusions are drawn and some lines of future research are proposed.

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    File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/12_SI_p1.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by European Research Studies Journal in its journal European Research Studies Journal.

    Volume (Year): XV (2012)
    Issue (Month): Special Issue on Energy ()
    Pages: 3-30

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    Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:3-30

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    Web page: http://www.ersj.eu/

    Related research

    Keywords: Energy; Portfolio; Energy Production; Investment Diversification; Security of Supply;

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    References

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    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
    2. Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-47, June.
    3. Awerbuch, Shimon & Yang, Spencer, 2007. "Efficient electricity generating portfolios for Europe: maximising energy security and climate change mitigation," EIB Papers 7/2007, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    4. Muñoz, José Ignacio & Sánchez de la Nieta, Agustín A. & Contreras, Javier & Bernal-Agustín, José L., 2009. "Optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy: The Spanish case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5273-5284, December.
    5. Boris Krey & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Efficient Electricity Portfolios for Switzerland and the United States," SOI - Working Papers 0602, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
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