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Expectativas cambiarias, selección adversa y liquidez

Author

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  • Jimmy Melo

    (El Colegio de México. Centro de Estudios Económicos. México DF, México)

Abstract

Este artículo evalúa las implicaciones en el corto plazo de las expectativas cambiarias en mercados de crédito, afectados por problemas de selección adversa, y modela un mercado de crédito donde los contratos de deuda son contingentes en el ingreso de los prestatarios. Los activos riesgosos que estos últimos poseen están denominados en moneda extranjera y su valor en libros, estipulado en los contratos de deuda, se traduce usando las expectativas sobre el tipo de cambio basadas en las premisas del análisis técnico. Este artículo muestra que la información pública, generada por la tendencia adversa del tipo de cambio, mueve al mercado de crédito hacia un equilibrio donde la inversión y el crédito se contraen, y definen el espacio para la intervención del gobierno. En este contexto, el gobierno responde a la información generada por la tendencia del tipo de cambio e incrementa el tamaño de programa, a fin de estabilizar las variaciones en la tasa de interés, lo cual evita que la inversión y la liquidez se reduzcan.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimmy Melo, 2014. "Expectativas cambiarias, selección adversa y liquidez," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 27-62, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxiii:y:2014:i:1:p:27-62
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    File URL: http://www.economia.uanl.mx/revistaensayos/xxxiii/1/Expectativas_cambiarias_seleccion_adversa_y_liquidez.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Análisis técnico; selección adversa; expectativas de tipo de cambio; liquidez del mercado; diseño de mecanismos; préstamos directos del gobierno;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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