Project risk simulation methods – a comparative analysis
AbstractEffective risk management provides a solid basis for decisionmaking in projects, bringing important benefits. While the financial and economical crisis is present at the global level and the competition in the market is more and more aggressive, the interest in project risk management increases. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of two quantitative risk analysis methods, Monte Carlo simulation and the Three Scenario approach. Two experiments are designed based on real projects, in order to compare the effectiveness of these methods. The conclusions of the comparative analysis are that Three Scenario approach, even if is not as accurate as Monte Carlo, assures the results stability, if the same shape of the probability distribution curve is considered. The Three Scenario approach is easy to be applied in practice and requires a shorter computation time than Monte Carlo.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Economic Publishing House in its journal Management & Marketing.
Volume (Year): 7 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (Winter)
Contact details of provider:
project risk management; Monte Carlo; Three Scenario approach; simulation.;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simona Vasilache).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.