An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications
AbstractThis paper re-examines the empirical validity of the Prebish-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufacturing goods. The empirical findings based on arithmetic and geometric commodity price indices are compared. When Grilli-Yang's arithmetic mean index is employed, the findings regarding commodity price trends are inconclusive. A new geometric mean index, in contrast, yields results that are robust.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.
Volume (Year): 7 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
- Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2011.
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- Joseph P. Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Working Papers 2010_27, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
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