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An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications

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  • John T. Cuddington

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

This paper re-examines the empirical validity of the Prebish-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufacturing goods. The empirical findings based on arithmetic and geometric commodity price indices are compared. When Grilli-Yang's arithmetic mean index is employed, the findings regarding commodity price trends are inconclusive. A new geometric mean index, in contrast, yields results that are robust.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): 7 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 159-179

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Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:7:y:1992:i:2:p:159-179

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Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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Cited by:
  1. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
  2. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
  3. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
  4. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2011. "Primary commodity prices : co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5578, The World Bank.

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