An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications
AbstractThis paper re-examines the empirical validity of the Prebish-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufacturing goods. The empirical findings based on arithmetic and geometric commodity price indices are compared. When Grilli-Yang's arithmetic mean index is employed, the findings regarding commodity price trends are inconclusive. A new geometric mean index, in contrast, yields results that are robust.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.
Volume (Year): 7 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013.
"Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals,"
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- Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2011. "Primary commodity prices : co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5578, The World Bank.
- Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
- John T. Cuddington & Rodney Ludema & Shamila A Jayasuriya, 2002.
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
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