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Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: la política fiscal y el balance estructural en México, 1990-2009

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  • Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo

    (Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas

    (Centro de Estudios de las Finanzas Públicas)

  • Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández

    (Banco de México)

Abstract

This study estimates the structural budget balance for the Mexican economy adjusting for both the business cycle and the international oil price for the period 1990-2009. Consistent with earlier studies, our results suggest that fiscal policy has been characterized as procyclical during most of the period. However, we find that it has been countercyclical since late 2008, although to a lesser degree than what indicates the traditional balance. Moreover, we simulate counterfactual scenarios where it is analyzed what would have happened if a fiscal rule were applied on both the structural and the traditional budget balances over the period under study.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): 25 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 309-336

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Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:25:y:2010:i:2:p:309-336

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Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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Keywords: public balance; structural balance; business cycles;

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  1. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  3. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Cuddington, John T. & Urzua, Carlos M., 1989. "Trends and cycles in Colombia's real GDP and fiscal deficit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 325-343, April.
  5. Jorge C. Rodriguez & Carla R. Tokman & Alejandra C. Vega, 2007. "Structural Balance Policy in Chile," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 59-92.
  6. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marcel, Mario, 2001. "Balance Estructural del Gobierno Central. Metodología y Estimaciones para Chile
    [Structural Bazlance of Central Government. Methodology and estimates for Chile]
    ," MPRA Paper 43338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Jeronimo Pastor & Alejandro Villagomez, 2007. "The structural budget balance: a preliminary estimation for Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(12), pages 1599-1607.
  11. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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