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Abstract

This study estimates the structural budget balance for the Mexican economy adjusting for both the business cycle and the international oil price for the period 1990-2009. Consistent with earlier studies, our results suggest that fiscal policy has been characterized as procyclical during most of the period. However, we find that it has been countercyclical since late 2008, although to a lesser degree than what indicates the traditional balance. Moreover, we simulate counterfactual scenarios where it is analyzed what would have happened if a fiscal rule were applied on both the structural and the traditional budget balances over the period under study.

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File URL: http://codex.colmex.mx:8991/exlibris/aleph/a18_1/apache_media/JX618IRESJJ7ECB9VYQ3MNY4JIDJCJ.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): 25 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 309-336

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Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:25:y:2010:i:2:p:309-336

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Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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Related research

Keywords: public balance; structural balance; business cycles;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
• H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
• H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
• E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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1. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December.
   
   • Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
2. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
3. Jorge C. Rodriguez & Carla R. Tokman & Alejandra C. Vega, 2007. "Structural Balance Policy in Chile," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 59-92.
4. Jeronimo Pastor & Alejandro Villagomez, 2007. "The structural budget balance: a preliminary estimation for Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(12), pages 1599-1607.
5. Cuddington, John T. & Urzua, Carlos M., 1989. "Trends and cycles in Colombia's real GDP and fiscal deficit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 325-343, April.
6. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
7. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
8. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
9. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
10. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance - The IMF's Methodology," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.

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