Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: la política fiscal y el balance estructural en México, 1990-2009
AbstractThis study estimates the structural budget balance for the Mexican economy adjusting for both the business cycle and the international oil price for the period 1990-2009. Consistent with earlier studies, our results suggest that fiscal policy has been characterized as procyclical during most of the period. However, we find that it has been countercyclical since late 2008, although to a lesser degree than what indicates the traditional balance. Moreover, we simulate counterfactual scenarios where it is analyzed what would have happened if a fiscal rule were applied on both the structural and the traditional budget balances over the period under study.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.
Volume (Year): 25 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
public balance; structural balance; business cycles;
Other versions of this item:
- Juan Carlos Chávez Martín del Campo & Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas & Felipe de Jesús Fonseca Hernández, 2010. "Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: La Política Fiscal y el Balance Estructural en México, 1990-2009," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EC201004, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
- H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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