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Quasi purchasing power parity: Structural change in the Mexican peso/us dollar real exchange rate

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Author Info

  • Antonio E. Noriega

    (Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Lorena Medina

    (Universidad de Guanajuato)

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether the real exchange-rate of the Mexican peso/US dollar revert to a long-run equilibrium value, and whether this value is unique. We use a method for testing stationarity, that allows for an unknown number of structural breaks in the level of the series. Using a long span of annual data covering the period 1925-1994, our results provide evidence favouring long-run Quasi-Purchasing Power Parity. In particular, we find that the real peso/dollar exchange rate has fluctuated stationarily around a 70 year long-run level, perturbed by a series of events, both domestic and external, in or around 1981.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 227-236

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Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:18:y:2003:i:2:p:227-236

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Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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  1. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
  4. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1995. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard: can they be explained by the trend break model?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 539-548, August.
  6. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Long memory or structural breaks: Can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 380, Boston College Department of Economics.
  7. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  9. Lucrezia Reichlin, 1989. "Structural change and unit roots econometrics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10165, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  10. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February.
  11. Antonio E. Noriega & Araceli Ramírez-Zamora, 1999. "Unit roots and multiple structural breaks in real output," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(2), pages 163-188.
  12. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1991. "A Test of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity Allowing for Structural Breaks," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(196), pages 26-33, March.
  13. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October.
  14. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
  15. Steigerwald, Douglas G., 1996. "Purchasing power parity, unit roots, and dynamic structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 343-357, February.
  16. Aggarwal, Raj & Montanes, Antonio & Ponz, Monserrat, 2000. "Evidence of long-run purchasing power parity: analysis of real asian exchange rates in terms of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 351-361, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Gómez Aguirre Mario & Rodríguez Chávez José Carlos, 2013. "El efecto Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson. El caso de México," Contaduría y Administración:Revista Internacional, Accounting and Management: International Journal, vol. 58(3), pages 121-147, julio-sep.
  2. repec:gua:wpaper:em200601 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Arne Kildegaard, 2006. "Fundamentals of real exchange rate determination: What role in the peso crisis?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 21(1), pages 3-22.
  4. Manuel Gómez-Zaldívar & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & Frederick Wallace, 2013. "The PPP hypothesis and structural breaks: the case of Mexico," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1351-1359, December.
  5. Mario Gómez Aguirre & José Carlos A. Rodríguez Chávez, 2012. "Análisis de la paridad del poder de compra: evidencia empírica entre México y Estados Unidos," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 169-207.
  6. HOLMES, Mark J, 2008. "Non-Linear Trend Stationarity And Co-Trending In Latin American Real Exchange Rates," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 107-118.
  7. Pablo Astorga, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Latin America: what does the 20th Century reveal?," Working Papers in Economic History wp07-03, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.

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