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Toeholds and takeover probability: implications for investment strategies

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  • J. Samuel Baixauli
  • Matilde O. Fernández
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    Abstract

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose various toehold indicators and analyse whether the models incorporating these indicators can be used to establish investment strategies. Design/methodology/approach – Logistic regression is used to test toehold indicator significance. Findings – The results reflect that the designed measures are positively correlated to the likelihood of launching a takeover, although the power of the models to predict out-sample takeovers is moderate, between 60.71 percent and 71.59 percent. The indicators allow us to design strategies which offer positive abnormal returns. In particular, abnormal return over the Fama-French factors is 0.5 percent. Originality/value – Toeholds are used to initiate takeover processes. As previous studies have indicated, a toehold increases the likelihood of success in a tender offer. Nevertheless, the studies on takeover prediction do not include the toehold since it is a variable which is unobservable prior to the announcement of a takeover bid.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Studies in Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 69-86

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    Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:26:y:2009:i:2:p:69-86

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    Related research

    Keywords: Return on investment; Take-overs;

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