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Prediction of distress and identification of potential M&As targets in UK

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Author Info

  • Dionysios Polemis
  • Dimitrios Gounopoulos

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify financial characteristics that assess and predict corporate financial distress in publicly traded firms quoted in the London Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach – The model incorporates three existing literatures as an alternative to bankruptcy. The model has two stages: the first stage discriminates financially healthy or distressed firms utilizing binary logit regression. The second stage makes use of the univariate analysis. Firms can be further categorized into four possible outcomes: financially healthy, potentially healthy targets and financially distressed and potentially distressed acquisition targets. Findings – It was found that financial distress could be identified as early as three years prior to the event. Moreover, statistically significant differences were found between the four firm sample groups. Research limitations/implications – The vast changing environment and the financial crisis highlight the need for future research on the world trade implications, as well as the individual macroeconomic variables of each country. Originality/value – This is the first time a UK study makes use of this model in order to follow the hazard model's procedure based on recent financial data. Due to the scope of the analysis, a new version of the latter procedure is employed. A further innovation that makes the model unique is its ability to classify a firm into one of several a priori groupings according to the latter's individual characteristics. This overcomes the limitation of earlier studies that only considered two possible outcomes for firms.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Managerial Finance.

Volume (Year): 38 (2012)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1085-1104

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Handle: RePEc:eme:mfipps:v:38:y:2012:i:11:p:1085-1104

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Related research

Keywords: Acquisitions and mergers; Corporate finances; Public companies; United Kingdom;

References

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Szilagyi, Jan & Hilscher, Jens & Campbell, John, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Scholarly Articles 3199070, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Bruner, Robert F., 1988. "The Use of Excess Cash and Debt Capacity as a Motive for Merger," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 199-217, June.
  3. Altman, Edward I., 1984. "The success of business failure prediction models : An international survey," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 171-198, June.
  4. Schoenberg, Richard & Reeves, Richard, 1999. "What determines acquisition activity within an industry?," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 93-98, February.
  5. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Stevens, Donald L., 1979. "Bankruptcy Avoidance as a Motive For Merger," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 501-515, September.
  6. Jan Camerlynck & Hubert Ooghe & Tine Langhe, 2005. "Pre-Acquisition Profile of Privately Held Companies Involved in Take-Overs: An Empirical Study," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 169-186, 03.
  7. Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Van Hulle, 2006. "Corporate Failure Prediction Modeling: Distorted by Business Groups' Internal Capital Markets?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 909-931.
  8. Eckbo, B. Espen, 1983. "Horizontal mergers, collusion, and stockholder wealth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 241-273, April.
  9. Barnes, Paul, 2000. "The identification of U.K. takeover targets using published historical cost accounting data Some empirical evidence comparing logit with linear discriminant analysis and raw financial ratios with indu," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-162.
  10. Franks, Julian & Mayer, Colin, 1996. "Hostile takeovers and the correction of managerial failure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 163-181, January.
  11. Evi Neophytou & Cecilio Mar Molinero, 2004. "Predicting Corporate Failure in the UK: A Multidimensional Scaling Approach," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5-6), pages 677-710.
  12. Andreas Charitou & Evi Neophytou & Chris Charalambous, 2004. "Predicting corporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 465-497.
  13. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
  14. Andy Cosh & Paul M. Guest & Alan Hughes, 2006. "Board Share-Ownership and Takeover Performance," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3-4), pages 459-510.
  15. Dietrich, J. Kimball & Sorensen, Eric, 1984. "An application of logit analysis to prediction of merger targets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 393-402, September.
  16. Zhang, Guoqiang & Y. Hu, Michael & Eddy Patuwo, B. & C. Indro, Daniel, 1999. "Artificial neural networks in bankruptcy prediction: General framework and cross-validation analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 16-32, July.
  17. David Citron & Mike Wright & Rod Ball & Fred Rippington, 2003. "Secured Creditor Recovery Rates from Management Buy-outs in Distress," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161.
  18. Ronan G. Powell, 1997. "Modelling Takeover Likelihood," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7&8), pages 1009-1030.
  19. Levine, Paul & Aaronovitch, Sam, 1981. "The Financial Characteristics of Firms and Theories of Merger Activity," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 149-72, December.
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