Prediction of distress and identification of potential M&As targets in UK
AbstractPurpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify financial characteristics that assess and predict corporate financial distress in publicly traded firms quoted in the London Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach – The model incorporates three existing literatures as an alternative to bankruptcy. The model has two stages: the first stage discriminates financially healthy or distressed firms utilizing binary logit regression. The second stage makes use of the univariate analysis. Firms can be further categorized into four possible outcomes: financially healthy, potentially healthy targets and financially distressed and potentially distressed acquisition targets. Findings – It was found that financial distress could be identified as early as three years prior to the event. Moreover, statistically significant differences were found between the four firm sample groups. Research limitations/implications – The vast changing environment and the financial crisis highlight the need for future research on the world trade implications, as well as the individual macroeconomic variables of each country. Originality/value – This is the first time a UK study makes use of this model in order to follow the hazard model's procedure based on recent financial data. Due to the scope of the analysis, a new version of the latter procedure is employed. A further innovation that makes the model unique is its ability to classify a firm into one of several a priori groupings according to the latter's individual characteristics. This overcomes the limitation of earlier studies that only considered two possible outcomes for firms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Managerial Finance.
Volume (Year): 38 (2012)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Citron & Mike Wright & Rod Ball & Fred Rippington, 2003. "Secured Creditor Recovery Rates from Management Buy-outs in Distress," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161.
- Andreas Charitou & Evi Neophytou & Chris Charalambous, 2004. "Predicting corporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK," European Accounting Review, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 465-497.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Van Hulle, 2006.
"Corporate Failure Prediction Modeling: Distorted by Business Groups' Internal Capital Markets?,"
Journal of Business Finance & Accounting,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 909-931.
- Dewaelheyns, Nico & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 2004. "Corporate failure prediction modeling: Distorted by business groups' internal capital markets?," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/85326, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Zhang, Guoqiang & Y. Hu, Michael & Eddy Patuwo, B. & C. Indro, Daniel, 1999. "Artificial neural networks in bankruptcy prediction: General framework and cross-validation analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 16-32, July.
- Eckbo, B. Espen, 1983. "Horizontal mergers, collusion, and stockholder wealth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 241-273, April.
- Barnes, Paul, 2000. "The identification of U.K. takeover targets using published historical cost accounting data Some empirical evidence comparing logit with linear discriminant analysis and raw financial ratios with indu," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-162.
- Altman, Edward I., 1984. "The success of business failure prediction models : An international survey," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 171-198, June.
- Ronan G. Powell, 1997. "Modelling Takeover Likelihood," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7&8), pages 1009-1030.
- Dietrich, J. Kimball & Sorensen, Eric, 1984. "An application of logit analysis to prediction of merger targets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 393-402, September.
- Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005.
"In search of distress risk,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2005. "In Searach of Distress Risk," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2081, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Szilagyi, Jan & Hilscher, Jens & Campbell, John, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Scholarly Articles 3199070, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2006. "In Search of Distress Risk," NBER Working Papers 12362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hubert Ooghe & Jan Camerlynck, 2002.
"Pre-acquisition profile of privately held companies involved in takeovers: an empirical study,"
Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series
2001-10, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
- Jan Camerlynck & Hubert Ooghe & Tine Langhe, 2005. "Pre-Acquisition Profile of Privately Held Companies Involved in Take-Overs: An Empirical Study," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 169-186, 03.
- Schoenberg, Richard & Reeves, Richard, 1999. "What determines acquisition activity within an industry?," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 93-98, February.
- Shrieves, Ronald E. & Stevens, Donald L., 1979. "Bankruptcy Avoidance as a Motive For Merger," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 501-515, September.
- Franks, Julian & Mayer, Colin, 1996. "Hostile takeovers and the correction of managerial failure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 163-181, January.
- Bruner, Robert F., 1988. "The Use of Excess Cash and Debt Capacity as a Motive for Merger," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 199-217, June.
- Andy Cosh & Paul M. Guest & Alan Hughes, 2006. "Board Share-Ownership and Takeover Performance," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3-4), pages 459-510.
- Levine, Paul & Aaronovitch, Sam, 1981. "The Financial Characteristics of Firms and Theories of Merger Activity," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 149-72, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Harris).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.