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Foreign exchange risk and risk exposure in the Japanese stock market

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  • Chu-Sheng Tai
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    Abstract

    Purpose – Whether stock returns are linked to exchange rate changes and whether foreign exchange risk is priced in a domestic context are less conclusive and thus still subject to a great debate. The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on these two inter-related issues, which are critical to investors and corporate risk management. Design/methodology/approach – This paper applies two different econometric approaches: Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression (NLSUR) via Hansen's Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) and multivariate GARCH in mean (MGARCH-M) to examine the exchange rate exposure and its pricing. Findings – Using industry data for Japan, similar to previous studies, foreign exchange risk is not priced based on the test of an unconditional two-factor asset pricing model. However, strong evidence of time-varying foreign exchange risk premium and significant exchange rate betas are obtained based on the tests of conditional asset pricing models using MGARCH-M approach where both conditional first and second moments of industry returns and risk factors are estimated simultaneously. Research limitations/implications – The strong empirical evidence found in this study implies that corporate currency hedging not only results in more stable cash flows for a firm, but also reduces its cost of capital, and hence is justifiable. Originality/value – This paper conducts an in-depth investigation regarding the exchange rate exposure and its pricing by utilizing two different econometric approaches: NLSUR via Hansen's GMM and MGARCH-M. In doing so, a more reliable conclusion about the exchange rate exposure and its pricing can be drawn.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Managerial Finance.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 511-524

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    Handle: RePEc:eme:mfipps:v:36:y:2010:i:6:p:511-524

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    Related research

    Keywords: Exchange rates; Japan; Risk management; Stock markets;

    References

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    1. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Sources of Risk and Expected Returns in Global Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 4622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    5. Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Hiraki, Takato & Takezawa, Nobuya, 1998. "Is Foreign Exchange Risk Priced in the Japanese Stock Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 361-382, September.
    6. Brown, Stephen J. & Otsuki, Toshiyuki, 1993. "Risk premia in Pacific-Basin capital markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 235-261, September.
    7. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Anita Mehra Prasad, 1995. "Exchange Risk Sensitivity and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of U.S. Multinationals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), Fall.
    8. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July.
    9. Jia He & Lilian K. Ng, 1998. "The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Japanese Multinational Corporations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 733-753, 04.
    10. Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
    11. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
    12. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 363-376, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Foreign exchange rate exposure: Evidence from Canada," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 18-29.
    2. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2012. "An Application of GARCH while investigating volatility in stock returns of the World," MPRA Paper 45089, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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