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Financial development and economic growth: evidence from the European Union

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  • George E. Halkos
  • Marianna K. Trigoni

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to detect the relationship between finance and growth in the European Union countries, by searching the direction of causations. Design/methodology/approach – The growth of real sector is expressed by real GDP per capita growth (dgdpcap), while the size of the financial system by the ratio of domestic credit to GDP (domcregdp). The deposit rate and inflation are used as indexes of monetary policy. This paper estimates vector autoregressive models, based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schartz criterion (SC) criteria and cointegration tests are conducted. To test for stationarity, the paper uses Im, Pesaran and Shin (IPS) test. In case with variables are integrated of order one I(1), the paper tests whether they are cointegrated using Pedroni's methodology. Findings – In the short run, the size of the financial system does not directly seem to affect growth, although its increase seems to lead to an increase in the deposit rate and consequently to a decrease in real GDP per capita. However, according to the vector error correction estimates, the significance of the error correction coefficients implies that there is a relationship between real sector, financial sector and monetary policy in the long run. Originality/value – Pedroni's methodology, which allows for heterogeneity across members and residual serial correlation, is used for the first time, in Europe, regarding the above-mentioned variables. According to the results, there seems to be a long-term relationship, between finance, growth and monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Managerial Finance.

Volume (Year): 36 (2010)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 949-957

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Handle: RePEc:eme:mfipps:v:36:y:2010:i:11:p:949-957

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Related research

Keywords: Banking; Economic growth; European Union; Finance;

References

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  1. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
  3. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  4. Roger Atindehou & Jean Pierre Gueyie & Edoh Kossi Amenounve, 2005. "Financial intermediation and economic growth: evidence from Western Africa," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 777-790.
  5. John Thornton, 1996. "Financial deepening and economic growth in developing economics," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 243-246.
  6. Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "Financial development and economic growth in Mainland China: a note on testing demand-following or supply-leading hypothesis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(13), pages 869-873.
  7. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Mouawiya Al-Awad & Nasri Harb, 2005. "Financial development and economic growth in the Middle East," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1041-1051.
  9. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  10. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  11. Fry, Maxwell J, 1978. "Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 464-75, November.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  13. Marco Da Rin & Thomas Hellmann, 2000. "Banks as Catalysts for Industrialisation," FMG Discussion Papers dp343, Financial Markets Group.
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