The sequential sawyer – a tale of frequentist fright
AbstractPurpose – The editorial aims to illustrate a major weakness of frequentist estimation – overlooking prior beliefs that are clearly relevant. Design/methodology/approach – A hypothetical forecasting problem is considered in which a law-enforcement officer has to determine who will be the next victim in a coded sequence constructed by a serial killer. The frequentist method of maximum likelihood is used to select the underlying pattern. Findings – The example shows that it is quite possible for the maximum-likelihood approach to overlook an intuitively obvious model. Originality/value – The editorial provides a simple and clear example of the shortcomings of the maximum-likelihood principle.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Risk Finance.
Volume (Year): 9 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
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Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
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