Testing forecasting power of the conditional relationship between beta and return
AbstractPurpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the forecasting power of the conditional relationship between beta and international stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – Using the market model, the individual betas for each country in the sample are estimated by ordinary least square. The conditional relation between beta and return is tested by estimating cross-sectional regressions for each month (i.e. 343 cross-sectional regressions). Mean value of coefficients and t-statistics (one tail) are computed to test whether the mean values of coefficients are significantly positive and negative. Whether there is a systematic relationship between the bull market and the bear market is also tested. Findings – Overall, no support of the model was found. Although positive, there is insignificant relationship between beta of current period when excess market return is positive with next period stock return. Moreover, although negative, there was insignificant relationship between beta of current period when excess market return in negative with next period stock return. Similar results were found when the sample was divided into January and non-January months. Originality/value – This contribution is to test the validity of conditional relationship between beta and stock returns in international setting by considering the effect of current period up- and down-markets on the next period stock return. If the conditional version of capital asset pricing model (CAPM) holds, there must be a consistent result, i.e. similar to those obtained by the studies using contemporaneous relationship. It is important to perform such tests on the conditional version of CAPM since an ex post state dependent model may not be used as a forecasting model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Risk Finance.
Volume (Year): 11 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Girard, Eric & Rahman, Hamid & Zaher, Tarek, 2001. "Intertemporal risk-return relationship in the Asian markets around the Asian crisis," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-4), pages 249-272.
- Steven Heston & K. Rouwenhorst & Roberto Wessels, 2008.
"The Role of Beta and Size in the Cross-Section of European Stock Returns,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm86, Yale School of Management.
- Steven L. Heston & K. Geert Rouwenhorst & Roberto E. Wessels, 1999. "The Role of Beta and Size in the Cross-Section of European Stock Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 5(1), pages 9-27.
- Fletcher, Jonathan, 2000. "On the conditional relationship between beta and return in international stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 235-245.
- Gultekin, Mustafa N. & Gultekin, N. Bulent, 1983. "Stock market seasonality : International Evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 469-481, December.
- Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 1996.
"Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
5604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Sources of Risk and Expected Returns in Global Equity Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
4622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September.
- Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
- Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June.
- William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
- Hodoshima, Jiro & Garza-Gomez, Xavier & Kunimura, Michio, 2000. "Cross-sectional regression analysis of return and beta in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 515-533.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1992. "Does Market Risk Really Explain the Size Effect?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 337-351, September.
- Glenn Pettengill, 2002. "Payment For Risk: Constant Beta Vs. Dual-Beta Models," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 123-135, 05.
- Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 101-116, March.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
- Hamid Reza Vakilifard & Forough Heirany, 2013. "A Comparative Evaluation of the Predictability of Fama-French Three-Factor Model and Chen Model in Explaining the Stock Returns of Tehran Stock Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 118-124, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Harris).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.