Effect of 9/11 on the conditional time-varying equity risk premium: evidence from developed markets
AbstractPurpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility effects on the returns for six developed market indices factoring in the unprecedented event of September 11, 2001, hereafter referred to as 9/11, in the USA. It also looks at the correlations between the indices and the risk premium when uncertainty in the financial markets affects the investors psyche, eroding confidence as volatility increases. Design/methodology/approach – The volatility of the indices in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) framework, employing first the Box and Jenkins ARMA (p, q) to select models is investigated. The chosen models are based on the results obtained from Akaike information criterion and Schwartz Bayesian criterion. GARCH is a mechanism that includes past variances in the explanation of future variances. Findings – The results highlight several findings, the variance of developed market returns appears to have increased after the 9/11 event; the correlation has increased among developed markets following 9/11; 9/11 affects developed markets, holding short-term assets do not provide the investors with the reward they usually seek, but results are mixed in the case of holding long-term assets; for all the period including sub-period, signs of significant volatility clustering are found; but shocks are not explosive throughout. Originality/value – The effect of 9/11 on the markets is different from previous worldwide crashes, such as that of October 19, 1987. This paper will be of value to policy makers and managers/institutional investors and those who have some stakes in international portfolio diversification, as the objective of diversification, is to avail the opportunity to improve portfolio performance on the low correlations across international stock markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Risk Finance.
Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Connolly, Robert A. & Wang, F. Albert, 2003. "International equity market comovements: Economic fundamentals or contagion?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 23-43, January.
- Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
" Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jang, Hoyoon & Sul, Wonsik, 2002. "The Asian financial crisis and the co-movement of Asian stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 94-104.
- Robert Johnson & Luc Soenen, 2002. "Asian Economic Integration and Stock Market Comovement," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 141-157.
- Hess, Alan C & Kamara, Avraham, 2005. "Conditional Time-Varying Interest Rate Risk Premium: Evidence from the Treasury Bill Futures Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 679-98, August.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989.
"A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989. "A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Fernandez-Serrano, Jose L. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2001. "Modelling evolving long-run relationships: the linkages between stock markets in Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 145-160, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992.
"No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns,"
3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
- John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989.
"Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
- Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Bertero, Elisabetta & Mayer, Colin, 1989.
"Structure and Performance: Global Interdependence of Stock Markets Around the Crash of October 1987,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bertero, Elisabetta & Mayer, Colin, 1990. "Structure and performance: Global interdependence of stock markets around the crash of October 1987," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1155-1180, September.
- Johnson, Robert & Soenen, Luc, 2003. "Economic integration and stock market comovement in the Americas," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100, February.
- Kearney, Colm, 2000. "The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 31-52.
- Sheedy, Elizabeth, 1998. "Correlation in currency markets a risk-adjusted perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 59-82, January.
- Christian Jochum, 1999. "Volatility spillovers and the price of risk: Evidence from the Swiss stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 303-322.
- Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
- Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
- Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Sowell, Clifford, 1999. "NAFTA and North American stock market linkages: an empirical note," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 443-451.
- Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
- Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989.
"The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market,"
89-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 89-01, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Paul Bennett & Jeanette Kelleher, 1988. "The international transmission of stock prices disruption in October 1987," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 17-33.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Claessens, Stijn, 1991. "Optimal dynamic hedging portfolios and the currency composition of external debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 131-148, March.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997.
"Emerging equity market volatility,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
- Agmon, Tamir, 1972. "The Relations Among Equity Markets: A Study of Share Price Co-Movements in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 839-55, September.
- Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "Price and Volatility Transmission across Borders," Working Paper Series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Chou, Ray Yeutien, 1988. "Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using Garch," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-94, October-D.
- Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Volatility spillovers across equity markets: European evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 245-256.
- Jose Pagan & Gokce Soydemir, 2000. "On the linkages between equity markets in Latin America," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 207-210.
- Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004.
"Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?,"
Working Paper Research
53, National Bank of Belgium.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Chen, Andrew H. & Siems, Thomas F., 2004. "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 349-366, June.
- George M. von Furstenberg & Bang Nam Jeon, 1989. "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 125-180.
- Essaddam, Naceur & Karagianis, John M., 2014. "Terrorism, country attributes, and the volatility of stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 87-100.
- Christos Kallandranis & Konstantinos Drakos, 2011. "Terrorism Shocks and Stock Market Reaction Patterns," EUSECON Policy Briefing 14, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.