Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Untangling the non-linear causal nexus between exchange rates and stock prices: New evidence from the OECD countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Shyh-Wei Chen
  • Tzu-Chun Chen
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in 12 OECD countries. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examine the nexus of stock prices and exchange rates for 12 OECD countries by using the vector error correction model, the bounds testing methodology and linear and non-linear Granger causality methods. Findings – The empirical results substantiate that a long-run level equilibrium relationship among the exchange rates and stock prices exists in only seven out of twelve countries. The results of the linear causality tests indicate that significant short-run and long-run causal relationships exist between the two financial markets. The results of the tests for non-linear Granger causality suggest that unidirectional and bidirectional non-linear causal relationships exist between stock prices and exchange rates among these OECD countries. Originality/value – The findings from this paper suggest the causal relationships between stock prices and exchange rates are not only linear, but also non-linear. JEL classification: G1, F31, C32

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?issn=0144-3585&volume=39&issue=2&articleid=17031520&show=abstract
    Download Restriction: Cannot be freely downloaded

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 231-259

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:231-259

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com

    Order Information:
    Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
    Email:
    Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/jes.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Causality; Exchange rates; Non-linear; Stock prices;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
    4. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    6. Theophano Patra & Sunil Poshakwale, 2006. "Economic variables and stock market returns: evidence from the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 993-1005.
    7. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
    10. R. Smyth & M. Nandha, 2003. "Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 699-704.
    11. Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004. "A note on the Hiemstra-Jones test for Granger non-causality," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    12. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
    13. Kim, Ki-ho, 2003. "Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-313.
    14. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    15. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    17. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    18. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    19. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    20. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
    21. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2005. "Exchange rates and stock prices interaction during good and bad times: evidence from the ASEAN4 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 539-546.
    22. Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Habibullah, M.S. & Law, Siong Hook & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M., 2006. "Stock prices, exchange rates and causality in Malaysia: a note," MPRA Paper 656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
    24. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2002. "On the Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Note," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 197-203, April.
    25. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    26. Ajayi, Richard A & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "On the Dynamic Relation between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, Summer.
    27. Bruce Morley & Eric Pentecost, 2000. "Common trends and cycles in G-7 countries exchange rates and stock prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 7-10.
    28. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    29. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    30. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    32. Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
    33. Ajayi, Richard A. & Friedman, Joseph & Mehdian, Seyed M., 1998. "On the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates: Tests of granger causality," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 241-251.
    34. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
    35. Paul Turner, 2006. "Response surfaces for an F-test for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 479-482.
    36. Orawan Ratanapakorn & Subhash Sharma, 2007. "Dynamic analysis between the US stock returns and the macroeconomic variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 369-377.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Monetary Uncertainty and Demand for Money in Korea," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 317-324, March.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Industry trade and exchange-rate fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. and Chile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 619-626.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:231-259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jade Turvey).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.