Untangling the non-linear causal nexus between exchange rates and stock prices: New evidence from the OECD countries
AbstractPurpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in 12 OECD countries. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examine the nexus of stock prices and exchange rates for 12 OECD countries by using the vector error correction model, the bounds testing methodology and linear and non-linear Granger causality methods. Findings – The empirical results substantiate that a long-run level equilibrium relationship among the exchange rates and stock prices exists in only seven out of twelve countries. The results of the linear causality tests indicate that significant short-run and long-run causal relationships exist between the two financial markets. The results of the tests for non-linear Granger causality suggest that unidirectional and bidirectional non-linear causal relationships exist between stock prices and exchange rates among these OECD countries. Originality/value – The findings from this paper suggest the causal relationships between stock prices and exchange rates are not only linear, but also non-linear. JEL classification: G1, F31, C32
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993.
"Vector Autoregressions and Causality,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
- Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998.
"Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
- Theophano Patra & Sunil Poshakwale, 2006. "Economic variables and stock market returns: evidence from the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 993-1005.
- Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006.
"A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
- Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
- R. Smyth & M. Nandha, 2003. "Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 699-704.
- Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004.
"A note on the Hiemstra-Jones test for Granger non-causality,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
04-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Diks Cees & Panchenko Valentyn, 2005. "A Note on the Hiemstra-Jones Test for Granger Non-causality," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, June.
- Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
- Kim, Ki-ho, 2003. "Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-313.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996.
"Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate results from Gregory and Hansen(1996) JOE article," Statistical Software Components RTZ00081, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
- Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2005. "Exchange rates and stock prices interaction during good and bad times: evidence from the ASEAN4 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 539-546.
- Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Habibullah, M.S. & Law, Siong Hook & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M., 2006.
"Stock prices, exchange rates and causality in Malaysia: a note,"
656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- W N W Azman-Saini & M S Habibullah & Siong Hook Law & A M Dayang-Affizzah, 2007. "Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Causality in Malaysia: A Note," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 7-13, March.
- Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
- Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2002. "On the Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Note," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 197-203, April.
- Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
- Ajayi, Richard A & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "On the Dynamic Relation between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, Summer.
- Bruce Morley & Eric Pentecost, 2000. "Common trends and cycles in G-7 countries exchange rates and stock prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 7-10.
- Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990.
"Bulls, bears and market sheep,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
- Ajayi, Richard A. & Friedman, Joseph & Mehdian, Seyed M., 1998. "On the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates: Tests of granger causality," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 241-251.
- Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
- Paul Turner, 2006. "Response surfaces for an F-test for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 479-482.
- Orawan Ratanapakorn & Subhash Sharma, 2007. "Dynamic analysis between the US stock returns and the macroeconomic variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 369-377.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Monetary Uncertainty and Demand for Money in Korea," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 317-324, March.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Industry trade and exchange-rate fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. and Chile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 619-626.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jade Turvey).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.