Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Testing for nonlinearity of exchange rates: an information-theoretic approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Yuqin Zhang
  • Abdol S. Soofi
  • Shouyang Wang

Abstract

Purpose – This study seeks to explore the nature of a data-generating process for four dollar exchange rates. Design/methodology/approach – Using a discrete parametric modeling approach, an efficient test statistic was computed for nonlinearity in terms of variance of the residuals of the linear and nonlinear autoregressive models by Akaike Information Criterion, and a surrogate data analysis was conducted. Findings – It shows that a nonlinear autoregressive model outperforms a linear stochastic model in certain subsamples of baht, pound, ringgit, and yen dollar exchange rates. However, when the test statistics using different model orders and the data for the entire samples are estimated, it appears that the nonlinear model has a better performance than the linear model in fitting Thai and Malaysian currencies. The nonlinear model performs better than the linear model in the case of the UK pound in two thirds of the models, but the linear models completely outperform the nonlinear models for the yen data. Research limitations/implications – More financial and economic time series will be explored to employ the methodology used in the study, and tests for possible presence of nonlinear deterministic dynamics (chaos) in the exchange rates series will be conducted based on the present findings in further study. Practical implications – These findings suggest that the assumption of linear stochastic process as the underlying dynamics for all currencies examined in this study may not be justifiable. Originality/value – To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first attempt to use the test statistic based on the information-theoretical method in testing nonlinearity in financial and economic time series.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?issn=0144-3585&volume=38&issue=6
Download Restriction: Cannot be freely downloaded

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 637-657

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:38:y:2011:i:6:p:637-657

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com

Order Information:
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Email:
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/jes.htm

Related research

Keywords: Contagion; Exchange rates; Exponential autoregressive model; Information theory; Nonlinear; Surrogate data;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:38:y:2011:i:6:p:637-657. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.