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Modelling the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar

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Author Info

  • Faruk Balli
  • Elsayed Mousa Elsamadisy

Abstract

Purpose – This paper seeks to model the daily and weekly forecasting of the currency in circulation (CIC) for the State of Qatar. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs linear forecasting models, the regression model and the seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the CIC for Qatar. Findings – Comparing the linear methods, the seasonal ARIMA model provides better estimates for short-term forecasts. The range of forecast errors for the seasonal ARIMA model forecasts are less than 100 million QR for the short-term CIC forecasts. Practical implications – The findings of this paper suggest that the CIC in Qatar is in a pattern and it would be easier to forecast the currency in circulation in Qatar economy. Accurate estimates of money market liquidity would help Qatar Central bank, to maintain the price stability in the Qatar economy. Originality/value – This paper forecasts the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar. Additionally, the empirical part of the paper compares the different methodologies find the appropriate model for the CIC for the state of Qatar.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management.

Volume (Year): 5 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 321-339

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Handle: RePEc:eme:imefpp:v:5:y:2012:i:4:pp:321-339

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Related research

Keywords: Autoregressive processes; Currency accounting; Currency in circulation; Forecasting; Linear forecasting; Qatar; Seasonal ARIMA JEL Code: C45; E47; E58;

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  1. Marek Hlavacek & Michael Konak & Josef Cada, 2005. "The Application of Structured Feedforward Neural Networks to the Modelling of Daily Series of Currency in Circulation," Working Papers 2005/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bindseil, Ulrich & Seitz, Franz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months," Working Paper Series 0044, European Central Bank.
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