Modeling the impact of coal-to-liquids technologies on China's energy markets
AbstractPurpose – The purpose of the study is to evaluate the impact of China's current coal-to-liquids (CTL) activities on its coal and oil markets from 2005 to 2025. Design/methodology/approach – A partial equilibrium multi-equation model of China's oil and coal markets is developed based on data obtained from the existing literature. The impact of CTL technologies on China's oil and coal markets is evaluated using computer simulations by solving the model under scenarios with and without CTL production. Findings – The simulation results show that on average, the planned CTL activities will decrease crude oil prices by 5.73 percent and China's oil imports by 6.09 percent and increase China's domestic oil supply by 9.26 percent over the 20 year period. Also, China's demand for oil will increase by 0.35 percent on average, suggesting that CTL production will slightly stimulate China's demand for oil because of the drop in oil prices. China's demand for coal will also increase by 1.02 percent because of the additional demand for coal created by CTL production. Surprisingly, both coal prices and China's coal supply will decline by 0.51 percent while the demand for coal and coal supply of the rest of the world will be reduced by 1.63 percent and 0.28 percent, respectively. Originality/value – The paper is the first study on the implication of CTL conversion from an economist's point of view. It applies an economic model to quantify the impacts of such technology on overall energy prices and supplies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies.
Volume (Year): 1 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- A - General Economics and Teaching
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Harris).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.